Manual 2011 Fantasy Football Pro Forcast

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In the years since then, IBM has applied the system to a wide range of computing problems in industries like health care, banking, retail, and education.

Fantasy Football Cheatsheets & Rankings

In recent weeks, IBM has rolled out new Watson tools that could help you see , help city residents get better services , and even moderate the tone of your writing. Given that the NFL is one of the most scrutinized sports leagues on the planet, there are countless data points to analyze, IBM said, and more are being added every day. Those who contribute to the campaign will get early access to the app and, IBM argues, more ammunition to use against their fantasy league adversaries.

If you are truly a genius then your own personal bias can lead you to success. So without further delay lets look at my top 3 under valued NFL players who will surprise fantasy fans in It is that time of year again, football is upon us and with that we got to take credit for the players hard work somehow.

The belief that we knew while we were sitting on the couch eating cheeseburgers and throwing back Peppermint Schnapps our favorite players, for whatever reason, were hitting the weights, film room, and practice field hard as hell. Shoot since I drafted you Calvin Johnson aka Megatron or whatever I choose to call you I was with you shooting in the gym.


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The folklore that follows Fantasy Football is very fascinating. Days, weekends, even marriages can be ruined on any given week during the NFL season. In Cam Newton was barley ranked in fantasy circles, he went undrafted in most leagues and had one of the best fantasy Seasons in history Pre-draft rankings have to be taken with a grain of salt, especially after the 10th and 11th rounds, depending on your NFL knowledge you might want to start reaching for your favorite players at that point in the draft.

Stay Fresh! Because DYAR is a total stat, not a rate stat, it helps show the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players. The method and the computation of replacement level are discussed further here. DSR : Drive Success Rate, or the percentage of time that a team will get a first down or touchdown in a given set of four downs. DVOA : The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.

While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, although we use the same letters to refer to defensive rankings which are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents. When not adjusted for opponent, this stat is called VOA. It is not meant to be as obnoxious as it sounds. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate, while players with fewer Effective Yards than standard yards played worse than standard stats would otherwise indicate.

Effective Yards are not the best way to measure total value because they are more dependent on usage than DYAR. Equivalent Points EqPts : Method used by our college football analyst Bill Connelly, giving each yard line a point value based on the average number of points a team can expect to score from that spot on the field.

This is similar to the method we use to measure NFL special teams.

The Best Fantasy Football Pro Forecast of - Top 10, Best Value, Best Affordable

From there, each gain or loss is given a point value based on the change in EqPts. Estimated wins : The number of games that team should have won if it faced an average schedule of opponents and average luck, as determined by the Forest Index. Fantasy points : Scoring for a fantasy football league. While each league has its own scoring system, articles on Football Outsiders which reference fantasy football will use this fairly standard scoring system unless otherwise indicated:.

Field Position Rate : Compares the number of plays one team ran in opposing field position to the number of plays the other team ran in opposing field position.

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These two numbers must add up to percent. Includes essays on every team, statistical tables, new research, and KUBIAK fantasy football projections plus advanced FO stats and player comments for "skill players.

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Forest Index : A response to a claim that total team DVOA rankings "missed the forest for the trees," the forest index developed near the end of spits out an estimate of wins based on a formula that combines DVOA ratings in offense, defense, and special teams, as well as red zone defense, offense and defense in the second half of close games, offense in the first quarter, and variance see VARIANCE.

At the team level, this is any game where a team wins after trailing in the fourth quarter or in modified overtime. Elway actually had 34 4QC wins, the same amount as Johnny Unitas, because Denver counted games where Elway never trailed in the fourth quarter. Kacsmar credits a 4QC to a quarterback when he meets the following requirements:. For a game to count as a 4QC opportunity, the quarterback must have possession of the ball in the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit.

Fred Edelstein Lock of the Week : The best bet of the week's college football games as chosen by Seventh Day Adventure podcast host Russell Levine and his weekly guests. Named after the former ESPN "insider" who is currently serving time for fraud. Fremeau Efficiency Index FEI College football rating system created by Brian Fremeau based on measuring the success rate of a college football team scoring and preventing opponent scores during the non-garbage possessions of a game.

Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game. Front Zone : In the Football Outsiders system that breaks the field down into five zones, this represents when the offense has the ball from the defense's yard line to the defense's yard line.

FO Game Charting Project : Project initiated in where FO readers charted all NFL games in order to produce statistics that are publicly unavailable, including yards after catch, assigned defenders on pass plays, offensive formation on each play, and numerous other facts. Guts : Any win by points over a team that will finish the season with a record over.

This term comes from an article written for FOXSports. The four terms introduced in this article:. GWD : Game-winning drive. Arguably the first known usage of drive stats, the game-winning drive is the offensive scoring drive that puts the winning team ahead for the last time in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Very similar to fourth-quarter comebacks 4QC ; the main difference is a GWD can happen in a game that is only tied. There does not have to be a deficit like in a comeback. A GWD opportunity is any game where the offense has possession of the ball in the fourth quarter or overtime with the score tied or trailing by one score.

A 1-play, 0-yard drive that is just a field goal attempt does not count as a GWD. Keep Choppin' Wood : Weekly award given by our column Scramble for the Ball to the player or coach who is most detrimental to his team through his poor play. Named for the Jacksonville Jaguars motivational slogan that caused punter Chris Hanson to hack his leg with an axe, thus going out for the year.

Not an acronym; it was named after Houston head coach Gary Kubiak because he was a long time 80's backup, just like Bill Pecota, who gave his name to the player projection system over at Baseball Prospectus. Loser League : A fantasy football league originated by Football Outsiders where we choose six players every week that we expect to play poorly, but still meet minimum requirements. The goal is to score the fewest points. Loser points : The method of scoring for the Loser League, which is made up as follows:. Mid Zone : In the Football Outsiders system that breaks the field down into five zones, this represents when the offense has the ball from their own yard line to the defense's yard line.

Overvalued Wide Receivers To Avoid In Fantasy Football

Open-Field Yards : Average yards per carry that come more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage on long runs not included in Adjusted Line Yards. DPAR without opponent adjustments. See DYAR. The Penalty : In discussions of the Loser League , this is the 15 points scored by a running back who does not carry the ball 10 times, a quarterback who does not pass 10 times, a wide receiver who does not catch two passes, or a kicker who does not play due to injury or general suckitude.

A kicker who simply gets no opportunities because his team is shut out does not get the penalty. In its current form, the system applies to all wide receiver prospects, and is based on a weighted combination of five factors:.